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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Mon 29 Sep 2025

19:00

Venue

Mandemakers Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Waalwijk Win

43%

Waalwijk

2.30

24%

Draw

4.15

33%

Jong Ajax

3.08

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

1 – 0

8.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.63

Waalwijk xG

Total xG

3.00

1.38

Jong Ajax xG

43%
24%
33%
WaalwijkDrawJong Ajax

2.30

43%

Home win

4.15

24%

Draw

3.08

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.50

Clean Sheet

25%

Waalwijk

3.97

20%

Jong Ajax

5.08

Win to Nil

11%

Waalwijk

9.14

6%

Jong Ajax

15.64

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.0 6.8 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.2
1 8.1 11.1 7.7 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.6 9.0 6.2 2.9 1.0 0.3
3 3.6 4.9 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.626
λ Away (xG) 1.378
Total xG 3.004
League avg home goals 1.726
League avg away goals 1.385
Waalwijk attack strength 0.770
Waalwijk defence strength 1.088
Jong Ajax attack strength 0.915
Jong Ajax defence strength 1.223
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 8 / 46