Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Helmond Sport travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Helmond Sport — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Helmond Sport have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.00 (Helmond Sport). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Helmond Sport in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Helmond Sport and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 79% and Helmond Sport 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 62% | Helmond Sport 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 2.82 xG and Helmond Sport 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / defence 0.982 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Waalwijk games / 51 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 66% | Draw 16% | Helmond Sport 17%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.52 | Draw 6.25 | Helmond Sport 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.82 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 90% | Helmond Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 66% | Draw 16% | Helmond Sport 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 72% | xG Waalwijk 2.82 / Helmond Sport 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / def 0.982 | Helmond Sport attack 0.924 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.82
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Helmond Sport xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport part of?
Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 66% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 17% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Waalwijk and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 3 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Helmond Sport in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.11) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
66%
1.51
16%
6.12
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.82
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.26
1.43
Helmond Sport xG
1.51
66%
Home win
6.12
16%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
6%
16.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
1%
97.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.82 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.43 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 17W 20D 15L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 27L across 52 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.37 PPG, Helmond Sport on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 2W 4D 19L across 25 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.29 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 13W 12D 27L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Helmond Sport away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.48 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
3
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Helmond Sport?
From 3 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 84%, Helmond Sport at 48%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Waalwijk and 52% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Waalwijk's matches and 52% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Waalwijk and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Dutch football predictions →