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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat FC OSS 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.27 xG and FC OSS 1.48 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 32% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 41%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights