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Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.62 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.38 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 32%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 64%, FC Eindhoven 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights