Waalwijk vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Den Bosch meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Waalwijk 0W, Den Bosch 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 76% and Den Bosch 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.67 xG and Den Bosch 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / defence 0.982 | Den Bosch attack 1.054 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.828 / away 1.579. Data: 51 Waalwijk games / 51 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 38%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 90% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Waalwijk 1.67 / Den Bosch 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.113 / def 0.982 | Den Bosch attack 1.054 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.828 / away 1.579 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Den Bosch kick off?
Waalwijk vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch part of?
Waalwijk vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Waalwijk and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Den Bosch in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.05x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.55
23%
4.35
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.30
1.63
Den Bosch xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.63 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 19D 16L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 19W 12D 22L from 53 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.30 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 8W 3D 15L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.70 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 74%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 19D 16L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Den Bosch away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.46 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
From 2 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Den Bosch have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-3 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Waalwijk, 65% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Waalwijk and 73% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Waalwijk's games and 65% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Waalwijk's matches and 73% of Den Bosch's.
Do Waalwijk and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.