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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.90 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 49% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 29%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, Den Bosch 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.11 PPG, Den Bosch 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights