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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Cambuur 4-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.07 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Cambuur attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 25% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 51%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights