🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Roda 3-1 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.40 xG and Roda 1.75 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Roda attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 31% | Draw 23% | Roda 46%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Roda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.02 PPG, Roda 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights