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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat VVV Venlo 0-2 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 2.10 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.37 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VVV Venlo fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 54% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 25%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, Jong PSV U21 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.05 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights