VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ meet at Seacon Stadion De Koel in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Seacon Stadion De Koel this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Jong AZ have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VVV Venlo. A 0.80 PPG lead over Jong AZ (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Jong AZ, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jong AZ have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 52% versus Jong AZ 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 65% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 2.75 xG and Jong AZ 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.263 / defence 0.901 | Jong AZ attack 1.465 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.901 / away 1.423. VVV Venlo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 VVV Venlo games / 48 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 56% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 26%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 1.79 | Draw 5.56 | Jong AZ 3.85. The model has a clear lean to VVV Venlo (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Jong AZ lead the H2H ledger, but VVV Venlo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 50% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Seacon Stadion De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 56% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 79% | xG VVV Venlo 2.75 / Jong AZ 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.263 / def 0.901 | Jong AZ attack 1.465 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.901 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Jong AZ xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Seacon Stadion De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
VVV Venlo 4 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Seacon Stadion De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 56% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 26% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 7W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (1.26) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.47x) against VVV Venlo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.9%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.5%), 3-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
56%
1.77
18%
5.62
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
4.63
1.88
Jong AZ xG
1.77
56%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
6%
15.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
2%
60.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.88 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.63.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 20W 6D 22L from 48 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 27L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.10 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 12W 2D 10L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 10W 3D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 20W 6D 22L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 5D 27L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong AZ away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.58 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 3-0 on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
7
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Jong AZ have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 46%, Jong AZ 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VVV Venlo and 79% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of VVV Venlo's games and 75% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VVV Venlo's matches and 79% of Jong AZ's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong AZ tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seacon Stadion De Koel, Regular Season - 11, as VVV Venlo and Jong AZ drew 4-4 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 2.75 xG and Jong AZ 1.88 xG, a combined 4.63. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.26 / defence 0.90 against Jong AZ attack 1.47 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 56% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 26%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 65%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.38 PPG, Jong AZ 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.