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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 0.99 xG and FC Volendam 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.61 / defence 0.89 against FC Volendam attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 42%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 55%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.17 PPG, FC Volendam 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights