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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 28, as VVV Venlo and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.26 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against FC OSS attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 42% | Draw 31% | FC OSS 28%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.18 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights