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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Dordrecht 3-1 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.09 xG and Dordrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Dordrecht attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 40%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 57%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights