VVV Venlo 2-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as VVV Venlo welcome Den Bosch to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VVV Venlo's home record at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — VVV Venlo are significantly better at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 0.80 PPG versus Den Bosch's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
VVV Venlo hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Den Bosch, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
The historical record gives VVV Venlo a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Den Bosch trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 67% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 58% | Den Bosch 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.37 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.015 / defence 0.890 | Den Bosch attack 0.809 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.396. Data: 73 VVV Venlo games / 73 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 44% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 27%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Den Bosch 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 70% | Den Bosch 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 44% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG VVV Venlo 1.37 / Den Bosch 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.015 / def 0.890 | Den Bosch attack 0.809 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Den Bosch xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo 2 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch part of?
VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 44% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both VVV Venlo and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): VVV Venlo 4W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.42
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.37
1.00
Den Bosch xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.00 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 26W 22D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 17W 14D 42L from 73 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, VVV Venlo are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (15W 11D 10L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 7W 5D 24L from 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.10 scored and 2.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 26W 22D 25L in their last 73 games (1.37 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 17W 14D 42L in their last 73 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Den Bosch away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.56 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Den Bosch?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 69%, Den Bosch 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VVV Venlo) and 56% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 39% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VVV Venlo's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do VVV Venlo and Den Bosch tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat VVV Venlo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat VVV Venlo 2-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.37 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Den Bosch attack 0.81 / defence 0.83, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 44% | Draw 29% | Den Bosch 27%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Den Bosch 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.