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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant VVV Venlo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Cambuur 3-0 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.97 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against Cambuur attack 1.25 / defence 0.90, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 18% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 61%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, Cambuur 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights