VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as VVV Venlo welcome Almere City FC to Seacon - De Koel. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Seacon - De Koel, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 1.90 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of VVV Venlo: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Almere City FC, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VVV Venlo and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 53% versus Almere City FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VVV Venlo 64% | Almere City FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.59 xG and Almere City FC 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.202 / defence 0.936 | Almere City FC attack 1.375 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.685 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 VVV Venlo games / 45 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 48%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 2.08. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG VVV Venlo 1.59 / Almere City FC 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.202 / def 0.936 | Almere City FC attack 1.375 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Almere City FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Seacon - De Koel.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC part of?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 30% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 48% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VVV Venlo and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
Record (8 meetings): VVV Venlo 5W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
30%
3.29
21%
4.68
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.62
2.03
Almere City FC xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
4%
25.11
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 2.03 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 6D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.73 PPG from 45 outings (24W 6D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.33 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 11W 2D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 18W 6D 21L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 24W 6D 15L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.52 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 48%, Almere City FC 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for VVV Venlo and 74% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of VVV Venlo's games and 74% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of VVV Venlo's matches and 74% of Almere City FC's.
Do VVV Venlo and Almere City FC tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.