🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 0-3 hammering of VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat VVV Venlo 0-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.05 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.83 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.75 / defence 0.94 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 22% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 56%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 56%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights