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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Roda 3-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.33 xG and Roda 1.47 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Roda attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 34% | Draw 26% | Roda 40%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights