🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Jong PSV U21 3-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.79 xG and Jong PSV U21 2.34 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.34 / defence 1.19, drawn from 52/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 30% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 50%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 69%, Jong PSV U21 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.21 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights