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Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse and FC OSS finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.47 xG and FC OSS 1.41 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 36%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 69%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FC OSS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.20 PPG, FC OSS 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights