🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vitesse and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse and FC Eindhoven finished level at 1-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.79 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.39 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 46% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 28%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, FC Eindhoven 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.23 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights