Vitesse 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vitesse have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Vitesse against 1.10 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 54% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 57% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.868 / defence 1.275 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.124 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Data: 3 Vitesse games / 41 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 52%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 1.92. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Vitesse 1.12 / FC Eindhoven 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.868 / def 1.275 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.124 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.85
FC Eindhoven xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven?
Vitesse 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 20% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vitesse and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and FC Eindhoven in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.87x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.12x) against Vitesse's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
20%
4.94
28%
3.58
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.96
1.85
FC Eindhoven xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
3%
31.34
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.85 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse's recent record stands at 7W 7D 23L from 37 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 14L across 37 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Vitesse against 1.11 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 2W 7D 9L from 18 games — 0.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 5W 7D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.24 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 7W 7D 23L in their last 37 games (0.76 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.72 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 0-4 on 17 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitesse
3
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Vitesse 1-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC Eindhoven?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 61%, FC Eindhoven 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vitesse) and 61% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Vitesse's games and 61% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vitesse's recent games and 61% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and FC Eindhoven finished level at 1-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.85 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 20% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 52%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 57%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.76 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.