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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitesse and Emmen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 34, as Vitesse and Emmen drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.63 xG and Emmen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Emmen attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 49% | Draw 25% | Emmen 27%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.30 PPG, Emmen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights