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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Emmen 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.08 xG and Emmen 2.18 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.67 / defence 1.65 against Emmen attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 17% | Draw 20% | Emmen 62%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Emmen's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights