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Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.59 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 25%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights