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Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Vitesse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.93 xG and Den Bosch 1.34 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.01 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 51% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 27%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.23 PPG, Den Bosch 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights