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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Vitesse 0-4 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.55 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Cambuur attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 38%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights