🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat ADO Den Haag 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.37 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.10 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.41 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights