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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Vitesse 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Vitesse 0-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.89 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitesse fell 0.9 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.22 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 15% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 64%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 62%, ADO Den Haag 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights