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Telstar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Roda 3-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.45 xG and Roda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.44 / defence 0.79 against Roda attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 68% | Draw 18% | Roda 15%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 57%, Roda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights