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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Jong Utrecht 6-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.16 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.67 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.14 / defence 0.74 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 72% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 10%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 56%, Jong Utrecht 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Telstar arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights