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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Telstar edge out FC OSS 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat FC OSS 3-2 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.04 xG and FC OSS 0.65 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.25 / defence 0.77 against FC OSS attack 0.67 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 69% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 10%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 58%, FC OSS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.23 PPG, FC OSS 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights