Telstar 0-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Telstar welcome FC Eindhoven to 711 Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar at 711 Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Telstar at 1.40 PPG versus FC Eindhoven's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Telstar register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Eindhoven have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Telstar.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that FC Eindhoven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 64% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 54% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.80 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.051 / defence 1.003 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.922 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.415. Data: 39 Telstar games / 39 FC Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Telstar 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 3.85. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Telstar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 90% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Telstar 1.80 / FC Eindhoven 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.051 / def 1.003 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.922 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Telstar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Telstar vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Telstar 0 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Telstar vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 47% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Telstar and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Telstar and FC Eindhoven in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Telstar's attack at 1.05x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.73
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.11
1.31
FC Eindhoven xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
4%
23.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Telstar and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Telstar and 1.31 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 8D 21L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (10W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 0.97 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Telstar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 10W 8D 21L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 10W 16D 13L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Telstar's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.37 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Telstar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Telstar
2
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when FC Eindhoven 0-4 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Telstar at 79%, FC Eindhoven at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Telstar) and 53% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Telstar's games and 58% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Telstar's matches and 53% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Telstar and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Telstar 0-3 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.80 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.31 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 54%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 0.97 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.