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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Dordrecht 5-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.64 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.28 / defence 0.87 against Dordrecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 56%, Dordrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights