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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Telstar and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar and ADO Den Haag finished level at 1-1 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.55 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.32 / defence 0.75 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.71, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 47% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 27%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 58%, ADO Den Haag 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights