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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant VVV Venlo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Roda 1-4 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.17 xG and VVV Venlo 1.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Roda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.01 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 1.34, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 64% | Draw 20% | VVV Venlo 17%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, VVV Venlo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights