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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Roda and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.19 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 69% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 13%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 57%, Jong Utrecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights