Roda 3-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 2D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 0.80 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Roda, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Jong Utrecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.38 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.826 / defence 0.747 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.822 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. Roda's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Roda games / 59 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 30% | Jong Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Jong Utrecht 4.76. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 30% | Jong Utrecht 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 30% | Jong Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Roda 1.38 / Jong Utrecht 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.826 / def 0.747 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.822 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Jong Utrecht xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Roda 3 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 5W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.83) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.82x) against Roda's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.39
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Roda xG
Total xG
2.20
0.82
Jong Utrecht xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.65
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Roda and 0.82 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 27W 18D 14L from 59 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 7W 19D 33L across 59 games — 0.68 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 17W 6D 5L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 1W 9D 18L across 28 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.88 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 18D 14L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 19D 33L in their last 59 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.04 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 46%, Jong Utrecht 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 61% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Roda's recent matches and 61% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 61% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 3-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.38 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.82 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 30% | Jong Utrecht 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Jong Utrecht 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.