Roda 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 49%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Roda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Volendam have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Volendam away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Feb 2022, ended Roda 1–1 FC Volendam — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 56% and FC Volendam 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 52% | FC Volendam 72%). Note also that FC Volendam surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.048 / defence 0.696 | FC Volendam attack 1.300 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. FC Volendam have an above-average attack rating of 1.300, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.696), which is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 54 games and FC Volendam's last 16.
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.02 | Draw 4.12 | FC Volendam 3.80. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Roda 1.83 / FC Volendam 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.048 / def 0.696 | FC Volendam attack 1.300 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Roda vs FC Volendam kick off?
Roda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 29 November 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Roda 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Roda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Volendam part of?
Roda vs FC Volendam is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Roda and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Roda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.05) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.30x) against Roda's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 54 games and FC Volendam's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.12
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Roda xG
Total xG
3.13
1.29
FC Volendam xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Roda and 1.29 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 17D 10L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (14W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.46 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 66%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
Roda (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Roda vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Roda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 17D 10L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Volendam away?
Roda's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Roda or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Roda
3
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Volendam?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 0, FC Volendam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2025: FC Volendam 3-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Roda, 83% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Roda and 75% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 83% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Roda's matches and 75% of FC Volendam's.
Do Roda and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Roda's recent matches and 83% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Roda and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.83 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.05 / defence 0.70 against FC Volendam attack 1.30 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 49% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 52%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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