Roda 1-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Eindhoven are 0.70 PPG clear of Roda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Roda 1W, FC Eindhoven 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.38 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.734 / defence 0.988 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.886 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.318. Roda's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Roda games / 73 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 42% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Roda 1.38 / FC Eindhoven 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.734 / def 0.988 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.886 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Eindhoven xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Roda 1 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 42% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.89x) against Roda's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.76
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Roda xG
Total xG
2.53
1.15
FC Eindhoven xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Roda and 1.15 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 75 games, going 30W 19D 26L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.67 PPG from 75 outings (36W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Roda against 1.67 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 17W 9D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.32 points per game from 37 outings (13W 10D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 30W 19D 26L in their last 75 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 36W 17D 22L in their last 75 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, FC Eindhoven 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Roda) and 49% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 51% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Roda's recent games and 49% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Roda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.38 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.15 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.73 / defence 0.99 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 42% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.45 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.