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Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda and FC Eindhoven finished level at 0-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.17 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Roda 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, FC Eindhoven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.34 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights