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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Roda 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Eindhoven beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.36 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 34% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 41%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, FC Eindhoven 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.57 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights