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Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Roda and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.46 xG and Den Bosch 1.00 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Den Bosch attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 47% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 26%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Den Bosch 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights