Roda vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Roda at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 4W 5D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 62% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.892 / defence 0.731 | De Graafschap attack 0.926 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.828 / away 1.579. Roda's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Roda games / 51 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 3.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 49% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Roda 1.56 / De Graafschap 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.892 / def 0.731 | De Graafschap attack 0.926 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.828 / away 1.579 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
De Graafschap xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 49% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 5W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.89) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
49%
2.06
25%
3.95
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Roda xG
Total xG
2.63
1.07
De Graafschap xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Roda and 1.07 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 21W 19D 13L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 18L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.55 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 8W 10D 8L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 8D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.77 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 21W 19D 13L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.31 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 58%, De Graafschap at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 73% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Roda's games and 77% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Roda's matches and 73% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.