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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.11 xG and Cambuur 1.86 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against Cambuur attack 1.12 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 22% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 55%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Cambuur 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights