🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Roda 0-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.16 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Roda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 2.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 27% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 49%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 60%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights