Roda 1-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Roda's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ADO Den Haag's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
ADO Den Haag arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Roda, 2 for ADO Den Haag and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Roda 0–3 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 34 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 55% and ADO Den Haag 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | ADO Den Haag 67%). Note also that ADO Den Haag surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.03 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.897 / defence 1.008 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.150 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.263. ADO Den Haag bring a tight defence (rating 0.691, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Roda's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 73 games and ADO Den Haag's last 73.
Result probabilities: Roda 26% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.84 | Draw 3.62 | ADO Den Haag 2.16. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 50% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 36 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 26% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Roda 1.03 / ADO Den Haag 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.897 / def 1.008 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.150 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.46
ADO Den Haag xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 24 April 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 1 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 36) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 26% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.90x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.15x) against Roda's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 73 games and ADO Den Haag's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
26%
3.84
28%
3.62
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Roda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.46
ADO Den Haag xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Roda and 1.46 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Roda have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 34W 21D 20L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 37W 21D 17L from 75 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Roda against 1.76 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 37 home games (23W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 11D 9L from their last 37 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 69%.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Roda (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 34W 21D 20L in their last 75 games (1.64 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 37W 21D 17L in their last 75 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Roda's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.08 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Roda or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 6 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won Roda 5-0 ADO Den Haag on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 February 2026: Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 49%, ADO Den Haag 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Roda and 65% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Roda's games and 70% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Roda's matches and 65% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Roda's recent matches and 81% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and ADO Den Haag finished level at 1-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.03 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.46 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.15 / defence 0.69, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 26% | Draw 28% | ADO Den Haag 46%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.64 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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