NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Willem II at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and Willem II meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 6W 1D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for NAC Breda against 2.30 for Willem II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Willem II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 61% versus Willem II 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 63% | Willem II 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.094 / defence 1.119 | Willem II attack 1.140 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.303. Data: 71 NAC Breda games / 33 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG NAC Breda 1.59 / Willem II 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.094 / def 1.119 | Willem II attack 1.140 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Willem II xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Willem II kick off?
NAC Breda vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is NAC Breda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Willem II part of?
NAC Breda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 37% chance of winning, Willem II a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both NAC Breda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (1.09) and Willem II's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.14x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.71
23%
4.31
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.25
1.66
Willem II xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.66 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 31W 12D 24L from 67 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 27L across 67 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.37 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 18W 8D 7L from 33 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 8W 9D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.36 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 31W 12D 24L in their last 67 games (1.57 PPG), while Willem II have gone 26W 14D 27L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Willem II away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.88 PPG; Willem II away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Willem II?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 54%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (NAC Breda) and 61% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of NAC Breda's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of NAC Breda's recent games and 61% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Willem II tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.66 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Willem II attack 1.14 / defence 0.83, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 37% | Draw 23% | Willem II 40%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 63%, Willem II 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.57 PPG, Willem II 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.