NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, NAC Breda have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 52% and Jong PSV U21 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | Jong PSV U21 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.82 xG and Jong PSV U21 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.835 / defence 1.354 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.911 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.899 / away 1.685. Data: 6 NAC Breda games / 46 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 45%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.86 | Draw 4.76 | Jong PSV U21 2.22. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Jong PSV U21 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG NAC Breda 1.82 / Jong PSV U21 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.835 / def 1.354 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.911 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.899 / away 1.685 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Jong PSV U21 xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 35% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 5W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.83) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.91x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 6/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
35%
2.89
21%
4.80
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.90
2.08
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
12%
8.00
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
4%
23.14
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.08 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 8W 12D 20L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 15W 8D 17L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jong PSV U21 are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.68 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.05 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Jong PSV U21 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (NAC Breda) and 74% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of NAC Breda's games and 74% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of NAC Breda's matches and 74% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.