NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours NAC Breda (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NAC Breda face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong PSV U21's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, NAC Breda have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2026, ended 2–0 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.71 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.863 / defence 1.023 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.948 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Data: 13 NAC Breda games / 51 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 35%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG NAC Breda 1.71 / Jong PSV U21 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.863 / def 1.023 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.948 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Jong PSV U21 xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 42% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (7 meetings): NAC Breda 6W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.86) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.95x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.32
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.24
1.53
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.53 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 14D 20L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 17W 9D 21L from 47 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.28 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 7W 4D 12L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.60 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.30 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 2 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 6, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2026, when Jong PSV U21 0-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 52% for NAC Breda, 78% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (NAC Breda) and 74% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NAC Breda's games and 78% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of NAC Breda's matches and 74% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.