NAC Breda vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Jong AZ travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 3W 3D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.60 (Jong AZ). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: NAC Breda have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Jong AZ have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 54% versus Jong AZ 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Jong AZ 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.87 xG and Jong AZ 2.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / defence 1.339 | Jong AZ attack 1.385 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.581. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 2.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 NAC Breda games / 47 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 23% | Draw 17% | Jong AZ 60%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 4.35 | Draw 5.88 | Jong AZ 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 2.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 60% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 86% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 23% | Draw 17% | Jong AZ 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 80% | xG NAC Breda 1.87 / Jong AZ 2.93 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / def 1.339 | Jong AZ attack 1.385 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.93
Jong AZ xG
80%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong AZ kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 23% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 60% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 5W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.84x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 2.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (6.4%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
23%
4.27
17%
5.92
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.4%
Away win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.81
2.93
Jong AZ xG
4.27
23%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
71%
Over 3.5
1.41
29%
Under 3.5
3.45
53%
Over 4.5
1.89
47%
Under 4.5
2.13
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
5.04
Clean Sheet
5%
18.78
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
1%
80.27
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.93 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.81.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 12D 20L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 15W 4D 22L from 41 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 9W 2D 9L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.83 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 4D 22L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.15 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong AZ?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Jong AZ 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for NAC Breda and 85% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 75% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of NAC Breda's matches and 85% of Jong AZ's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.